VIRTUOUS

Following a distinct six-month period of intensive research, the VIRTUOUS project has reached a major milestone by delivering a comprehensive set of operational attack scenarios. These results translate the findings of risk and vulnerability assessments into realistic incident narratives. Led by the research efforts of SYNYO, the project has successfully created the conceptual foundation required for future digital twin simulations.

The recently finalised Deliverable 3.2 (Development of scenarios for the simulations) [1]presents a set of evidence-based incident narratives tailored to different types of places of worship. These results were achieved through a structured and collaborative process that built directly on the analytical foundations established in previous research tasks. The team conducted a qualitative analysis of 13 case studies and a quantitative trend analysis covering attacks from 1980 to mid-2025.

Three primary typologies were modelled to test different security dimensions:

1. Drone-Assisted Arson (Christian scenario): This scenario models a symbolic attack against a historic church during a public service, using a small commercial UAV to deliver an incendiary load onto elevated timber.
2. Perimeter Arson (Jewish scenario): This scenario focuses on the statistically recurrent threat of lone-actor incendiary attacks, highlighting criticalities in perimeter defence and surveillance.
3. Targeted Assault (Muslim scenario): This scenario simulates a stabbing in a musalla to test crowd management and volunteer response in resource-constrained environments.

SYNYO acted as the task lead for this phase, designing the comprehensive scenario template that ensured methodological consistency across all religious groups. SYNYO’s role involved consolidating, editing, and structuring the material provided by partners to ensure it was suitable for technical BIM simulation. This included defining specific “personas”—from worshippers to attackers—and detailed timelines for ignition, detection, and evacuation.

Additionally, the research identified key performance indicators, such as a “smoke-layer trigger” of 2.0 meters, which informs ushers when to switch evacuation routes from main doors to side exits. These results underline the project’s objective to reduce response latency and improve life safety.

The results go beyond technical considerations by integrating strategic categories for hands-on training. Each scenario now includes a specific set of countermeasures, ranging from fire-retardant treatments to the creation of codified evacuation playbooks.

The inclusion of a drone-assisted variant reflects wider emerging-threat considerations identified by Europol and the UN. [2] This ensures that the simulation-ready scripts are grounded in empirical reality while remaining sensitive to the open nature of religious sites.

References

[1] SYNYO (2025). VIRTUOUS – D3.2 Development of scenarios for the simulations. Final Version.

[2] Europol (2025). EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TE-SAT) 2025.

Links

VIRTUOUS Project Website: https://virtuousproject.eu/

Keywords

trend analysis, arson scenarios, drone threats, risk mitigation, BIM simulation, life safety, emergency response.